What It Does
Lays out the full methodology for estimating arv through comps analysis. Covers the three rules of good comps (Features, Date Sold, Proximity), with specific tolerances: square footage within +/-200 SF, sales within 6 months, and same neighborhood (non-negotiable). Includes a fudge factor adjustment chart with dollar amounts for bedrooms, bathrooms, garage, carport, pool, traffic exposure, and basement/ADU credit at two price tiers (under and over 00K). Lists DOA (Dead on Arrival) red flags like flood zones, zoning conflicts, and setback violations. Covers oddbird issues that require a discount. Finishes with the 5-step comping process and common pitfalls: speculative ARV, confirmation bias, and wrong side of the tracks.
How to Use It
- Pull 3-5 comps using the three rules: match features, sold within 6 months, same neighborhood.
- Confirm none of the comps are DOA or red-flag properties.
- Break comps down to arv per square foot.
- Apply that $/SF to your subject property.
- Check active listings to validate or challenge your number.
- Use the fudge factor chart when you need to adjust for a missing bedroom, garage, or pool. Only adjust one variable at a time, never proximity.
When You Need This
- Running comps on a new lead to determine your offer price.
- Training yourself to comp conservatively instead of cherry-picking data.
- Understanding when to walk away from a property (DOA list).
- Feeding an accurate arv into the flippin-calc for deal analysis.